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    <title>Three-Toed Sloth   </title>
    <link>http://bactra.org/weblog</link>
    <description>Slow Takes from the Canopy (My Very Own Internet Tradition)</description>
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  <item>
    <title>Lecture Notes on Stochastic Processes (Advanced Probability II)</title>
    <link>http://bactra.org/weblog/403.html</link>
    <description>
&lt;P&gt;I've started putting the notes for my lectures on stochastic processes
&lt;a href=&quot;http://bactra.org/weblog/393.html&quot;&gt;(36-754)&lt;/a&gt; online at
the &lt;a href=&quot;http://www.stat.cmu.edu/~cshalizi/754/2006/&quot;&gt;course homepage&lt;/a&gt;.

&lt;dl&gt;
&lt;dt&gt;&lt;a
href=&quot;http://www.stat.cmu.edu/~cshalizi/754/2006/notes/contents.pdf&quot;&gt;Contents&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/dt&gt;
&lt;dd&gt;Table of contents, which gives a running list of definitions, lemmas,
theorems, etc.  This will be updated with each new lecture.&lt;/dd&gt;
&lt;dt&gt;&lt;a
href=&quot;http://www.stat.cmu.edu/~cshalizi/754/2006/notes/lecture-01.pdf&quot;&gt;Lecture
1&lt;/a&gt; (16 January)&lt;/dt&gt;
&lt;dd&gt;Definition of stochastic processes, examples, random functions&lt;/dd&gt;
&lt;dt&gt;&lt;a
href=&quot;http://www.stat.cmu.edu/~cshalizi/754/2006/notes/lecture-02.pdf&quot;&gt;Lecture
2&lt;/a&gt; (18 January)&lt;/dt&gt;
&lt;dd&gt;Finite-dimensional distributions (FDDs) of a process, consistency of a
family of FDDs, theorems of Daniell and Kolmogorov on extending consistent
families to processes&lt;/dd&gt;
&lt;dt&gt;&lt;a href=&quot;http://www.stat.cmu.edu/~cshalizi/754/2006/notes/lecture-03.pdf&quot;&gt;Lecture 3&lt;/a&gt; (20 January)&lt;/dt&gt;
&lt;dd&gt;Probability kernels and regular conditional probabilities, extendings
finite-dimensional distributions defined recursively through kernels to
processes (the Ionescu Tulcea theorem).&lt;/dd&gt;
&lt;dt&gt;Homework Assignment 1 (due 27 January)&lt;/dt&gt;
&lt;dd&gt;Exercise 1.1; Exercise
3.1.  &lt;a
href=&quot;http://www.stat.cmu.edu/~cshalizi/754/2006/notes/solutions-1.pdf&quot;&gt;Solutions&lt;/a&gt;.&lt;/dd&gt;
&lt;dt&gt;&lt;a
href=&quot;http://www.stat.cmu.edu/~cshalizi/754/2006/notes/lecture-04.pdf&quot;&gt;Lecture 4&lt;/a&gt;
(23 January)&lt;/dt&gt;
&lt;dd&gt;One-paramater processes and their representation by shift-operator
semi-groups.&lt;/dd&gt;
&lt;dt&gt;&lt;a href=&quot;http://www.stat.cmu.edu/~cshalizi/754/2006/notes/lecture-05.pdf&quot;&gt;Lecture 5&lt;/a&gt; (25 January)&lt;/dt&gt;
&lt;dd&gt;Three kinds of stationarity, the relationship between strong stationarity and measure-preserving transformations (especially shifts).&lt;/dd&gt;
&lt;dt&gt;&lt;a
href=&quot;http://www.stat.cmu.edu/~cshalizi/754/2006/notes/lecture-06.pdf&quot;&gt;Lecture 6&lt;/a&gt; (27
January)&lt;/dt&gt;
&lt;dd&gt;Reminders about filtrations and optional times, definitions of various
sorts of waiting times, and Kac's Recurrence Theorem.&lt;/dd&gt;
&lt;dt&gt;Homework Assigment 2 (due 6 February)&lt;/dt&gt;
&lt;dd&gt;Exercise 5.3; Exercise 6.1; Exercise
6.2. &lt;a
href=&quot;http://www.stat.cmu.edu/~cshalizi/754/2006/notes/solutions-2.pdf&quot;&gt;Solutions&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/dd&gt;
&lt;dt&gt;&lt;a
href=&quot;http://www.stat.cmu.edu/~cshalizi/754/2006/notes/lecture-07.pdf&quot;&gt;Lecture 7&lt;/a&gt;
(30 January)&lt;/dt&gt;
&lt;dd&gt;Kinds of continuity, versions of stochastic processes, difficulties of
continuity, the notion of a separable random function.&lt;/dd&gt;
&lt;dt&gt;&lt;a
href=&quot;http://www.stat.cmu.edu/~cshalizi/754/2006/notes/lecture-08.pdf&quot;&gt;Lecture 8&lt;/a&gt;
(1 February)&lt;/dt&gt;
&lt;dd&gt;Existence of separable modifications of stochastic processes, conditions
for the existence of measurable, cadlag and continuous modifications.&lt;/dd&gt;
&lt;dt&gt;&lt;a
href=&quot;http://www.stat.cmu.edu/~cshalizi/754/2006/notes/lecture-09.pdf&quot;&gt;Lecture 9&lt;/a&gt;
(3 February)&lt;/dt&gt;
&lt;dd&gt;Markov processes and their transition-probability semi-groups.&lt;/dd&gt;
&lt;dt&gt;&lt;a
href=&quot;http://www.stat.cmu.edu/~cshalizi/754/2006/notes/lecture-10.pdf&quot;&gt;Lecture
10&lt;/a&gt; (6 February)&lt;/dt&gt;
&lt;dd&gt;Markov processes as transformed IID noise; Markov processes as operator
semi-groups on function spaces.&lt;/dd&gt;
&lt;dt&gt;&lt;a
href=&quot;http://www.stat.cmu.edu/~cshalizi/754/2006/notes/lecture-11.pdf&quot;&gt;Lecture
11&lt;/a&gt; (8 February)&lt;/dt&gt;
&lt;dd&gt;Examples of Markov processes (Wiener process and the logistic map).
Overlaps with &lt;a
href=&quot;http://www.stat.cmu.edu/~cshalizi/754/2006/notes/solutions-2.pdf&quot;&gt;solutions to
the second homework assignment&lt;/a&gt;.&lt;/dd&gt;
&lt;dt&gt;10 February&lt;/dt&gt;
&lt;dd&gt;Material from section 2 of lecture 10, plus an excursion into sofic
processes.&lt;/dd&gt;
&lt;dt&gt;&lt;a href=&quot;http://www.stat.cmu.edu/~cshalizi/754/2006/notes/lecture-12.pdf&quot;&gt;Lecture
12&lt;/a&gt; (13 February)&lt;/dt&gt;
&lt;dd&gt;Generators of homogeneous Markov processes, analogy with exponential
functions.&lt;/dd&gt;
&lt;dt&gt;&lt;a href=&quot;http://www.stat.cmu.edu/~cshalizi/754/2006/notes/lecture-13.pdf&quot;&gt;Lecture 13&lt;/a&gt; (15 February)&lt;/dt&gt;
&lt;dd&gt;The strong Markov property and the martingale problem.&lt;/dd&gt;
&lt;dt&gt;Homework Assignment 3 (due 20 February)&lt;/dt&gt;
&lt;dd&gt;Exercises 10.1 and 10.2&lt;/dd&gt;
&lt;dt&gt;&lt;a href=&quot;http://www.stat.cmu.edu/~cshalizi/754/2006/notes/lecture-14.pdf&quot;&gt;Lecture 14&lt;/a&gt; (17, 20 February)&lt;/dt&gt;
&lt;dd&gt;Feller processes, and an example of a Markov process which isn't
strongly Markovian.&lt;/dd&gt;
&lt;dt&gt;&lt;a href=&quot;http://www.stat.cmu.edu/~cshalizi/754/2006/notes/lecture-15.pdf&quot;&gt;Lecture 15&lt;/a&gt; (24 February, 1 March)&lt;/dt&gt;
&lt;dd&gt;Convergence in distribution of cadlag processes, convergence of Feller
processes, approximation of differential equations by Markov processes.&lt;/dd&gt;
&lt;dt&gt;&lt;a href=&quot;http://www.stat.cmu.edu/~cshalizi/754/2006/notes/lecture-16.pdf&quot;&gt;Lecture 16&lt;/a&gt; (3 March)&lt;/dt&gt;
&lt;dd&gt;Convergence of random walks to Wiener processes.&lt;/dd&gt;
&lt;dt&gt;Homework Assignment 4 (due 13 March)&lt;/dt&gt;
&lt;dd&gt;Exercise 16.1, 16.2 and 16.4.&lt;/dd&gt;
&lt;dt&gt;&lt;a href=&quot;http://www.stat.cmu.edu/~cshalizi/754/2006/notes/lecture-17.pdf&quot;&gt;Lecture 17&lt;/a&gt; (6 March)&lt;/dt&gt;
&lt;dd&gt;Diffusions, Wiener measure, non-differentiability of almost all continuous curves.&lt;/dd&gt;
&lt;dt&gt;&lt;a href=&quot;http://www.stat.cmu.edu/~cshalizi/754/2006/notes/lecture-18.pdf&quot;&gt;Lecture 18&lt;/a&gt; (8 March)&lt;/dt&gt;
&lt;dd&gt;Stochastic integrals: heuristic approach via Euler's method, rigorous approach.&lt;/dd&gt;
&lt;dt&gt;&lt;a href=&quot;http://www.stat.cmu.edu/~cshalizi/754/2006/notes/lecture-19.pdf&quot;&gt;Lecture 19&lt;/a&gt; (20, 21, 22 and 24 March)&lt;/dt&gt;
&lt;dd&gt;Examples of stochastic integrals.  Ito's formula for change of variables.
Stochastic differential equations, existence and uniqueness of solutions.
Physical Brownian motion: the Langevin equation, Ornstein-Uhlenbeck
processes.&lt;/dd&gt;
&lt;dt&gt;&lt;a href=&quot;http://www.stat.cmu.edu/~cshalizi/754/2006/notes/lecture-20.pdf&quot;&gt;Lecture 20&lt;/a&gt; (27 March)&lt;/dt&gt;
&lt;dd&gt;More on SDEs: diffusions, forward (Fokker-Planck) and backward equations.
White noise.
&lt;dt&gt;&lt;a href=&quot;http://www.stat.cmu.edu/~cshalizi/754/2006/notes/lecture-21.pdf&quot;&gt;Lecture 21&lt;/a&gt; (29, 31 March)&lt;/dt&gt;
&lt;dd&gt;Spectral analysis; how the white noise lost its color. Mean-square
ergodicity.&lt;/dd&gt;
&lt;dt&gt;&lt;a
href=&quot;http://www.stat.cmu.edu/~cshalizi/754/2006/notes/lecture-22.pdf&quot;&gt;Lecture
22&lt;/a&gt; (3 April)&lt;/dt&gt;
&lt;dd&gt;Small-noise limits for SDEs: convergence in probability to ODEs, and our
first large-deviations calculations.&lt;/dd&gt;
&lt;dt&gt;&lt;a
href=&quot;http://www.stat.cmu.edu/~cshalizi/754/2006/notes/lecture-23.pdf&quot;&gt;Lecture
23&lt;/a&gt; (5 April)&lt;/dt&gt;
&lt;dd&gt;Introduction to ergodic properties and invariance.
&lt;dt&gt;&lt;a
href=&quot;http://www.stat.cmu.edu/~cshalizi/754/2006/notes/lecture-24.pdf&quot;&gt;Lecture
24&lt;/a&gt; (7 April)&lt;/dt&gt;
&lt;dd&gt;The almost-sure (Birkhoff) ergodic theorem.&lt;/dd&gt;
&lt;dt&gt;&lt;a
href=&quot;http://www.stat.cmu.edu/~cshalizi/754/2006/notes/lecture-25.pdf&quot;&gt;Lecture
25&lt;/a&gt; (10 April)&lt;/dt&gt;
&lt;dd&gt;Metric transitivity.  Examples of ergodic processes.  Preliminaries on
ergodic decompositions.&lt;/dd&gt;
&lt;dt&gt;&lt;a
href=&quot;http://www.stat.cmu.edu/~cshalizi/754/2006/notes/lecture-26.pdf&quot;&gt;Lecture
26&lt;/a&gt; (12 April)&lt;/dt&gt;
&lt;dd&gt;Ergodic decompositions.  Ergodic components as minimal sufficient
statistics.&lt;/dd&gt;
&lt;dt&gt;&lt;a
href=&quot;http://www.stat.cmu.edu/~cshalizi/754/2006/notes/lecture-27.pdf&quot;&gt;Lecture
27&lt;/a&gt; (14 April)&lt;/dt&gt;
&lt;dd&gt;Mixing.  Weak convergence of distribution and decay of correlations.
Central limit theorem for strongly mixing sequences.&lt;/dd&gt;
&lt;dt&gt;&lt;a
href=&quot;http://www.stat.cmu.edu/~cshalizi/754/2006/notes/lecture-28.pdf&quot;&gt;Lecture
28&lt;/a&gt; (17 April)&lt;/dt&gt;
&lt;dd&gt;Introduction to information theory. Relations between Shannon entropy,
relative entropy/Kullback-Leibler divergence, expected likelihood and Fisher
information.&lt;/dd&gt;
&lt;dt&gt;&lt;a href=&quot;http://www.stat.cmu.edu/~cshalizi/754/2006/notes/lecture-29.pdf&quot;&gt;Lecture 29&lt;/a&gt; (24 April)&lt;/dt&gt;
&lt;dd&gt;Entropy rate.  The asymptotic equipartition property, a.k.a.  the
Shannon-MacMillan-Breiman theorem, a.k.a. the entropy ergodic theorem.
Asymptotic likelihoods.&lt;/dd&gt;
&lt;dt&gt;&lt;a
href=&quot;http://www.stat.cmu.edu/~cshalizi/754/2006/notes/lecture-30.pdf&quot;&gt;Lecture
30&lt;/a&gt; (26 April)&lt;/dt&gt;
&lt;dd&gt;General theory of large deviations.  Large deviations principles and rate
functions; Varadhan's Lemma.  Breeding LDPs: contraction principle,
&quot;exponential tilting&quot;, Bryc's Theorem, projective limits.
&lt;dt&gt;&lt;a
href=&quot;http://www.stat.cmu.edu/~cshalizi/754/2006/notes/lecture-31.pdf&quot;&gt;Lecture
31&lt;/a&gt; (28 April)&lt;/dt&gt;
&lt;dd&gt;IID large deviations: cumulant generating functions, Legendre's transform,
the return of relative entropy. Cramer's theorem on large deviations of
empirical means. Sanov's theorem on large deviations of empirical measures.
Process-level large deviations.
&lt;dt&gt;&lt;a
href=&quot;http://www.stat.cmu.edu/~cshalizi/754/2006/notes/lecture-32.pdf&quot;&gt;Lecture
32&lt;/a&gt; (1 May)&lt;/dt&gt;
&lt;dd&gt;Large deviations for Markov sequences through exponential-family
densities.&lt;/dd&gt;
&lt;dt&gt;Lecture 33 (2 May)&lt;/dt&gt;
&lt;dd&gt;Large deviations in hypothesis testing and parameter estimation.&lt;/dd&gt;
&lt;dt&gt;&lt;a href=&quot;http://www.stat.cmu.edu/~cshalizi/754/2006/notes/lecture-34.pdf&quot;&gt;Lecture 34&lt;/a&gt; (3 May)&lt;/dt&gt;
&lt;dd&gt;Large deviations for weakly-dependent sequences (Gartner-Ellis
theorem).&lt;/dd&gt;
&lt;dt&gt;&lt;a href=&quot;http://www.stat.cmu.edu/~cshalizi/754/2006/notes/lecture-35.pdf&quot;&gt;Lecture 35&lt;/a&gt; (5 May)&lt;/dt&gt;
&lt;dd&gt;Large deviations of stochastic differential equations in the small-noise
limit (Freidlin-Wentzell theory).&lt;/dd&gt;
&lt;dt&gt;&lt;a
href=&quot;http://www.stat.cmu.edu/~cshalizi/754/2006/notes/references.pdf&quot;&gt;References&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/dt&gt;
&lt;dd&gt;The bibliography, currently confined to works explicitly cited.&lt;/dd&gt;
&lt;d&gt;&lt;a href=&quot;http://www.stat.cmu.edu/~cshalizi/754/2006/notes/all.pdf&quot;&gt;Everything to
date&lt;/a&gt;
&lt;/dl&gt;

&lt;P&gt;In the staggeringly-unlikely event that anyone wants to keep track of the
course by RSS, &lt;a href=&quot;http://bactra.org/weblog/403.rss&quot;&gt;this&lt;/a&gt; should do
the trick.

&lt;P&gt;&lt;font size=&quot;-1&quot;&gt;
&lt;a href=&quot;http://bactra.org/weblog/cat_enigmas_of_chance.html&quot;&gt;Enigmas of Chance&lt;/a&gt;;
&lt;a href=&quot;http://bactra.org/weblog/cat_corrupting_the_young.html&quot;&gt;Corrupting the Young&lt;/a&gt;
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