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    <title>Three-Toed Sloth   </title>
    <link>http://bactra.org/weblog</link>
    <description>Slow Takes from the Canopy (My Very Own Internet Tradition)</description>
    <language>en</language>

  <item>
    <title>Chaos, Complexity, and Inference (36-462): Lecture Notes</title>
    <link>http://bactra.org/weblog/556.html</link>
    <description>
&lt;P&gt;This page will be updated as the semester goes on, if you want to use &lt;a
href=&quot;http://bactra.org/weblog/556.rss&quot;&gt;this RSS feed&lt;/a&gt; to track them.
Alternately, lecture notes will be linked to on the &lt;a
href=&quot;http://www.stat.cmu.edu/~cshalizi/462/syllabus.html&quot;&gt;course syllabus&lt;/a&gt;,
which includes the readings.

&lt;dl&gt;
&lt;dt&gt;Lecture 25 (April 22): Inference on networks&lt;/dt&gt;
&lt;dd&gt;&lt;a href=&quot;http://www.stat.cmu.edu/~cshalizi/462/lectures/25/25.pdf&quot;&gt;slides&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/dd&gt;

&lt;dt&gt;Lecture 24 (April 15): Contagion on networks&lt;/dt&gt;
&lt;dd&gt;&lt;a href=&quot;http://www.stat.cmu.edu/~cshalizi/462/lectures/24/24.pdf&quot;&gt;slides&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/dd&gt;

&lt;dt&gt;Lecture 23 (April 10): Collective phenomena and self-organization in
agent-based models&lt;/dt&gt;
&lt;dd&gt;&lt;a href=&quot;http://www.stat.cmu.edu/~cshalizi/462/lectures/23/23.pdf&quot;&gt;slides&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/dd&gt;

&lt;dt&gt;Lecture 22 (April 8): Agents and Agent-Based Models&lt;/dt&gt;
&lt;dd&gt;&lt;a href=&quot;http://www.stat.cmu.edu/~cshalizi/462/lectures/22/22.pdf&quot;&gt;slides&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/dd&gt;

&lt;dt&gt;Lecture 21 (April 3): Complex networks 2&lt;/dt&gt;
&lt;dd&gt;&lt;a
href=&quot;http://www.stat.cmu.edu/~cshalizi/462/lectures/21/21.pdf&quot;&gt;slides&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/dd&gt;

&lt;dt&gt;Lecture 20 (April 1): Complex networks 1&lt;/dt&gt;
&lt;dd&gt;&lt;a href=&quot;http://www.stat.cmu.edu/~cshalizi/462/lectures/20/20.pdf&quot;&gt;slides&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/dd&gt;

&lt;dt&gt;Lecture 19 (March 25): Inference from simulations&lt;/dt&gt;
&lt;dd&gt;&lt;a href=&quot;http://www.stat.cmu.edu/~cshalizi/462/lectures/19/19.pdf&quot;&gt;slides&lt;/a&gt;;
&lt;a href=&quot;http://www.stat.cmu.edu/~cshalizi/462/lectures/19/19.R&quot;&gt;R&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/dd&gt;

&lt;dt&gt;Lecture 18 (March 20):
Special problem-solving session for homework 2&lt;/dt&gt;
&lt;dd&gt;&lt;a href=&quot;http://www.stat.cmu.edu/~cshalizi/462/homework/02/solutions.pdf&quot;&gt;partial solutions&lt;/a&gt;; &lt;a href=&quot;http://www.stat.cmu.edu/~cshalizi/462/homework/02/solutions.R&quot;&gt;R&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/dd&gt;

&lt;dt&gt;Lecture 17 (March 18):
Error Statistics and Severe Testing&lt;/dt&gt;
&lt;dd&gt;&lt;a href=&quot;http://www.stat.cmu.edu/~cshalizi/462/lectures/17/17.pdf&quot;&gt;slides&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/dd&gt;

&lt;dt&gt;Lecture 16 (March 6):
Heavy tails 4, testing and evaluation&lt;/dt&gt;
&lt;dd&gt;&lt;a href=&quot;http://www.stat.cmu.edu/~cshalizi/462/lectures/16/16.pdf&quot;&gt;slides&lt;/a&gt; and &lt;a href=&quot;http://www.stat.cmu.edu/~cshalizi/462/lectures/16/16.R&quot;&gt;R&lt;/a&gt;
 

&lt;dt&gt;Lecture 15 (March 4):
Heavy tails 3, estimation&lt;/dt&gt;
&lt;dd&gt;&lt;a href=&quot;http://www.stat.cmu.edu/~cshalizi/462/lectures/15/15.pdf&quot;&gt;slides&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/dd&gt;

&lt;dt&gt;Lecture 14 (February 28):
Heavy tails 2, origins&lt;/dt&gt;
&lt;dd&gt;&lt;a href=&quot;http://www.stat.cmu.edu/~cshalizi/462/lectures/14/14.pdf&quot;&gt;slides&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/dd&gt;


&lt;dt&gt;Lecture 13 (February 26):
Heavy tails 1, basics&lt;/dt&gt;
&lt;dd&gt;&lt;a href=&quot;http://www.santafe.edu/~aaronc/powerlaws/&quot;&gt;General R files&lt;/a&gt; for the next several lectures&lt;/dd&gt;
&lt;dd&gt;&lt;a href=&quot;http://www.stat.cmu.edu/~cshalizi/462/lectures/13/13.pdf&quot;&gt;slides&lt;/a&gt;; &lt;a href=&quot;http://www.stat.cmu.edu/~cshalizi/462/lectures/13/13.R&quot;&gt;R&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/dd&gt;

&lt;dt&gt;Lecture 12 (February 21): Self-organization 2 &lt;/dt&gt;
&lt;dd&gt;&lt;dd&gt;&lt;a href=&quot;http://www.stat.cmu.edu/~cshalizi/462/lectures/12/12.pdf&quot;&gt;slides&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/dd&gt;


&lt;dt&gt;Lecture 11 (February 19): Cellular automata 2/Excitable media&lt;/dt&gt;
&lt;dd&gt;&lt;a href=&quot;http://www.stat.cmu.edu/~cshalizi/462/lectures/11/11.pdf&quot;&gt;slides&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/dd&gt;

&lt;dt&gt;Lecture 10 (February 14): Cellular automata 1&lt;/dt&gt;
&lt;dd&gt;&lt;a href=&quot;http://www.stat.cmu.edu/~cshalizi/462/lectures/10/10.pdf&quot;&gt;slides&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/dd&gt;

&lt;dt&gt;Lecture 9 (February 12): Self-organization 1&lt;/dt&gt;
&lt;dd&gt;Philip and Phylis Morrison and the Office of Charles and Ray Eames, &lt;cite&gt;&lt;a href=&quot;http://www.powersof10.com/&quot;&gt;Powers of Ten&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/cite&gt;&lt;/dd&gt;
&lt;dd&gt;&lt;a href=&quot;http://www.stat.cmu.edu/~cshalizi/462/lectures/09/09.pdf&quot;&gt;slides&lt;/a&gt;
&lt;/dd&gt;
&lt;dd&gt;&lt;em&gt;see also:&lt;/em&gt; &lt;a href=&quot;000019.html&quot;&gt;Pattern Formation in Cocktails&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/dd&gt;

&lt;dt&gt;Lecture 8 (February 7): Determinism and randomness&lt;/dt&gt;
&lt;dd&gt;&lt;a href=&quot;http://www.stat.cmu.edu/~cshalizi/462/lectures/08/Poincare.pdf&quot;&gt;Henri Poincar&amp;eacute;, &quot;Chance&quot;&lt;/a&gt;
(from &lt;cite&gt;Science and Method&lt;/cite&gt;, 1908)&lt;/dd&gt;
&lt;dd&gt;&lt;a href=&quot;http://www.stat.cmu.edu/~cshalizi/462/lectures/08/08.pdf&quot;&gt;slides&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/dd&gt;

&lt;dt&gt;Lecture 7 (February 5): Information theory&lt;/dt&gt;
&lt;dd&gt;&lt;a href=&quot;http://www.stat.cmu.edu/~cshalizi/462/lectures/07/07.pdf&quot;&gt;slides&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/dd&gt;
&lt;dd&gt;&lt;a href=&quot;http://www.mchawking.com/&quot;&gt;M.C. Hawking&lt;/a&gt;, &quot;Entropy&quot;,
from &lt;cite&gt;Fear of a Black Hole&lt;/cite&gt;
[&lt;a
href=&quot;http://www.mchawking.com/includes/lyrics/entropy_lyrics.php&quot;&gt;lyrics&lt;/a&gt;; &lt;a
href=&quot;lectures/07/Entropy.mp3&quot;&gt;mp3&lt;/a&gt; (radio-safe &lt;cite&gt;Brief History of
Rhyme&lt;/cite&gt; version)]&lt;/dd&gt;
&lt;dd&gt;Ray and Charles
Eames, &lt;cite&gt;&lt;a
href=&quot;http://www.archive.org/details.php?identifier=communications_primer&quot;&gt;A
Communications Primer&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/cite&gt;
&lt;!--Via Britta Gustafson!--&gt;&lt;/dd&gt;

&lt;dt&gt;Lecture 6 (January 31): Inference for Markov chains and related processes&lt;/dt&gt;
&lt;dd&gt;&lt;a href=&quot;http://www.stat.cmu.edu/~cshalizi/462/lectures/06/06.pdf&quot;&gt;slides&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/dd&gt;
&lt;dd&gt;&lt;a href=&quot;http://www.stat.cmu.edu/~cshalizi/462/lectures/06/markov-mle.pdf&quot;&gt;Note: Maximum Likelihood Estimation for Markov Chains&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/dd&gt;

&lt;dt&gt;Lecture 5 (January 29): Symbolic dynamics; stochastics from dynamics&lt;/dt&gt;
&lt;dd&gt;&lt;a href=&quot;http://www.stat.cmu.edu/~cshalizi/462/lectures/05/05.pdf&quot;&gt;slides&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/dd&gt;
&lt;dd&gt;&lt;a href=&quot;http://www.stat.cmu.edu/~cshalizi/462/lectures/05/topological-entropy-rate.pdf&quot;&gt;Note: More on the Topological Entropy Rate&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/dd&gt;

&lt;dt&gt;Lecture 4 (January 24): Attractor reconstruction and nonlinear prediction&lt;/dt&gt;
&lt;dd&gt;&lt;a href=&quot;http://www.stat.cmu.edu/~cshalizi/462/lectures/04/04.pdf&quot;&gt;slides&lt;/a&gt; (see slides for R examples).&lt;/dd&gt;
&lt;dd&gt;&lt;a href=&quot;http://www.stat.cmu.edu/~cshalizi/462/lectures/04/nonlinear-predictors.pdf&quot;&gt;Note: Nonlinear prediction, nearest-neighbors, kernel methods&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/dd&gt;
&lt;dd&gt;&lt;a href=&quot;http://www.stat.cmu.edu/~cshalizi/462/lectures/04/lorenz-generator.pl&quot;&gt;Lorenz time-series generator&lt;/a&gt;, written in Perl.&lt;/dd&gt;
&lt;dd&gt;&lt;a href=&quot;http://www.stat.cmu.edu/~cshalizi/462/lectures/04/lorenz-t50-to-t100-by-1e-3&quot;&gt;the Lorenz time series used in the lecture&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/dd&gt;

&lt;dt&gt;Lecture 3 (January 22): Attractors&lt;/dt&gt;
&lt;dd&gt;&lt;a href=&quot;http://www.stat.cmu.edu/~cshalizi/462/lectures/03/03.pdf&quot;&gt;slides&lt;/a&gt;; &lt;a href=&quot;http://www.stat.cmu.edu/~cshalizi/462/lectures/03/03.R&quot;&gt;R&lt;/a&gt;

&lt;dt&gt;Lecture 2 (January 17): More chaos&lt;/dt&gt;
&lt;dd&gt;&lt;a href=&quot;http://www.stat.cmu.edu/~cshalizi/462/lectures/02/02.pdf&quot;&gt;slides&lt;/a&gt;;
&lt;a href=&quot;http://www.stat.cmu.edu/~cshalizi/462/lectures/02/02.R&quot;&gt;R&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/dd&gt;
&lt;dd&gt;&lt;cite&gt;&lt;a href=&quot;http://math.gmu.edu/~sander/movies/arnold.html&quot;&gt;The Arnold Cat Map Movie&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/cite&gt; (starring Marlowe the Cat, directed by &lt;a href=&quot;http://math.gmu.edu/~sander/&quot;&gt;Evelyn Sander&lt;/a&gt;)&lt;/dd&gt;

&lt;dt&gt;Lecture 1 (January 15): What is a dynamical system? What is chaos? What is a simulation?&lt;/dt&gt;
&lt;dd&gt;&lt;a href=&quot;http://www.stat.cmu.edu/~cshalizi/462/lectures/01/01.pdf&quot;&gt;slides&lt;/a&gt;;
&lt;a href=&quot;http://www.stat.cmu.edu/~cshalizi/462/lectures/01/01.R&quot;&gt;R&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/dd&gt;

&lt;/dl&gt;

&lt;P&gt;&lt;span=&quot;blognotes&quot;&gt;
&lt;a href=&quot;cat_corrupting_the_young.html&quot;&gt;Corrupting the Young&lt;/a&gt;;
&lt;a href=&quot;cat_complexity.html&quot;&gt;Complexity&lt;/a&gt;;
&lt;a href=&quot;cat_enigmas_of_chance.html&quot;&gt;Enigmas of Chance&lt;/a&gt;;
&lt;a href=&quot;cat_networks.html&quot;&gt;Networks&lt;/a&gt;
&lt;/span&gt;
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