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CSCS 530 Syllabus - March

Note on links below to articles:

Note that many of the links below are to articles in online versions of journals, and as such, they may only be accessible via Mirlyn (or mirlyn proxy) connections. However, if you find links that are broken, please let me know and I'll fix them ASAP. (If you can find and send me the correct link, that would be most helpful!)

Mar 4 Wed --- Term Project Proposal and Short Paper Due.

Running experiments with (gs)drone.

Handouts: (TBD)

Assignment:

  • Run the experiment as covered in class: AntPheromones2 Experiment Plan

Term Project Proposal & Short Paper Due !!

Mar 6 Fri

Cultural diffusion models (Mostly variants of Axelrod's original).

Discussion Leaders: Carrie, Nate, Petra, Jeremy

Required Readings

Optional:

  • Aligning Simulation Models: A Case Study and Results (1996). Robert Axtell, Robert Axelrod, Joshua M. Epstein, Michael D. Cohen. Computational Mathematical Organization Theory, 1(2), pp. 123-141.
  • Thinking is Social: experiments with the adaptive culture model. J. Kenndy. J. Conflict Resolution 42(1): 56-77 (1998).
  • Polarization in Dynamic Networks: A Hopfield Model of Emergent Structure. Michael W. Macy, James A. Kitts, Andreas Flache (2002). Dynamic Social Network Modeling and Analysis: Workshop Summary and Papers (2003) published by the National Academy of Sciences, pp. 162-173. (PDF Version).
  • "Nonequilibrium phase transition in a model for Social Influence," Castallano etal, Physical Review Letters 85:3536-9 (2000). This link will take you to that issue's page, then scroll way own (almost to the bottom, under "Interdisciplinary Physics") to the article (click on "order document").
  • Nonequilibrium transitions in complex networks: a model of social interaction. Konstantin Klemm, Victor M. Eguiluz, Raul Toral, Maxi San Miguel, Phys. Rev. E 67, 026120 (2003).
  • Technology and Culture: The Dissemination and the Potential 'Lock-in' of New Technologies. Loet Leydesdorff. JASSS 4(3) article #5.

Mar 11 Wed

El Farol Bar Problem; Minority Game

Discussion Leaders: Tom, Justin, Ben

Required Readings:

  • Casti, John -- "Seeing the Light at the El Farol," Complexity, v1, pp 7-10 (1996). See the copy at this eReserves site.
  • Brian Arthur. "Inductive Reasoning and Bounded Rationality." American Economic Review (Papers and Proceedings), 84,406-411, 1994. Online here.
  • Challet and Zhang. "Emergence of Cooperation and Organization in an Evolutionary Game." Physica A 246, p407. Online at: http://arxiv.org/abs/adap-org/9708006.

Optional Readings:

  • Bruce Edmonds. "Gossip, Sexual Recombination and the El Farol bar: modelling the emergence of heterogeneity." Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation vol. 2, no. 3 (1999). Same underlying system, but a more complicated approach.
  • Fogel etal. "Inductive Reasoning and Bounded Rationality Reconsidered." IEEE Trans. on Evolutionary Computation , vol. 3, no. 2, pp. 142-146, July. 1999. You may want to just scan this: The important things to note are (a) it shows one way to fully define an El Farol-like model (lacking in Arthur's original paper), and (b) its outcomes are at odds with Arthur's claims, and its worth thinking about why, and what that means for Arthur's original claim (if anything!).
  • Estabon Moro. The Minority Game: an introductory guide http://xxx.lanl.gov/pdf/cond-mat/0402651/.
    (This is a good introduction and summary, but you may want to skim some of the detailed parts.)
  • Bazzan, A. L., Bordini, R. H., Andriotti, G. K., Vicari, R., and Wahle, J. 2000.
    Wayward agents in a commuting scenario (personalities in the minority game).
    In d'Inverno, M., and Luck, M., eds., Working Notes of the Third UK Workshop on Multi-Agent Systems (UKMAS 2000). St. Catherine's College, Oxford.
    CiteSeer copies and refs..
  • Robert Savit, Radu Manuca, Yi Li, and Rick Riolo. The Dynamics of Minority Competition.
    (Proc. ICCS-98) (PDF Version)

Supplemental materials:

Mar 13 Fri

Discussion Leaders: Nate, Meghan, Mike, Bala

Evolutionary Algorithms

Required Readings:

Optional Readings:

Demos (Thanks to Nate):

Mar 18 Wed

Verification/validation I

Discussion Leaders: Jun, Andrea, Tom, Jeremy

Required Readings:

Highly recommended:

Optional Readings:

  • Stylised Facts and the Contribution of Simulation to the Economic Analysis of Budgeting.
    Bernd-O. Heine, Matthias Meyer and Oliver Strangfeld. JASSS 4(4).
  • Grimm and Railsback. Chapter 3, Pattern Oriented Modeling
    from their book Individual-based Modeling and Ecology.
  • From Interesting Details to dynamical relevance: toward more effective use of empirical insights in theory construction. Oswald J. Schmitz. Oikos 94(1): 39-50 (2001).
  • Errors and Artefacts in Agent-Based Modelling.
    Galan etal (2009). [[Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation vol. 12, no. 1 1
http://jasss.soc.surrey.ac.uk/12/1/1.html]].

Mar 20 Fri

Verification/validation II

Discussion Leaders: Mike, Oscar, Mohammad, Changi

Required Readings:

This one is cited a lot, so you should read it sometime (i don't like it!):

  • Verification, Validation and Confirmation of Numerical Models in the Earth Sciences.
    Oreskes, Naomi, Shrader-Frechette, Kristin and Belitz, Kenneth. Science 263 (5147): 641-646 (1994).
    Note Well: This article uses "verification" in a way that most modellers call "validation," i.e., does the model "validly" model the part of the world it is meant model.

Optional Readings:

  • A couple of oft-cited papers about the effects of synchronous vs asynchronous updating:
    • Huberman, B. and Glance, N.. "Evolutionary games and computer simulations."
      Proc. Natl. Acad. Sciences (PNAS USA) 90 (16): 7716-18 (1993)
    • Scan this next one for their answer to Huberman and Glance): Nowak, Bonfoeffer and May. "Spatial games and the maintenace of cooperation." PNAS (USA) v91(11): pp4877-4881. 1994.
  • "The poor quality of random numbers" and "Monte Carlo physics: a cautionary lesson."
    Ferrenberg, Alan M., Landau, D.P., and Wong, Y.Joanna. Physical Review Letters 69(23). Dec 1992.
    See also News and Views in Nature Vol 372, 1 Dec 1994.
  • Jonathan Bart. "Acceptance Criteria for Using Individual-Based Models to Make Management Decisions." Ecological Applications 5 (2): 411-420 MAY 1995. Go to browse this journal to find it.
  • Edward J. Rykiel, Jr. "Testing Ecological Models: the meaning of validation." In Ecological Modelling, 90 (3): 229-244 (1996). Go to and find the journal.
  • Individuality in modelling: a simplifying assumption too far? David R. Cope. Nonlinear Analysis: Real World Applications 6(4): 691-704 (2005)

A nice tutorial:

  • Stewart Robinson. "Simulation Verifcation, Validation and Confidence: A Tutorial."
    Transactions of the Society for Computer Simulation International, 16 (No.2), pp. 63-69.

A good description and example applications of UA/SA methods:

A number of more technical papers, but you should definitely read these at some point if you are going to do "real" computational modelling:

  • Evaluating prediction uncertainty in simulation models. Michael D. McKay, John D. Morrison and
    Stephen C. Upton. Computer Physics Communications 117(1-2): 44-51 (1999).
  • Latin hypercube sampling and the propagation of uncertainty in analyses of complex systems.
    J. C. Helton and F. J. Davis. Reliability Engineering & System Safety 81(1): 23-69 (2003).
  • Blower S, Dowlatabadi H, May R, Anderson R. Sensitivity and Uncertainty Analysis of complex models of
    disease transmission: an HIV model, as an example. Int. Statist Rev. 1994;62:229-243.
  • Helton, J.C., Johnson, J.D., Sallaberry, C.J. and Storlie, C.B. (2006).
    Survey of sample-based methods for uncertainty and sensitivity analysis.
    Reliability Engineering and System Safety 91(10-11): 1175-1209.
  • Iman R, Helton J. An Investigation of Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analysis Techniques for
    Computer Models. Risk Analysis 1980;8:71-90.
  • Stochastic modelling of ecological processes using hybrid Gibbs samplers.
    D.M.Walker etal. Ecological Modelling 198: 40-52 (2006).
  • E.L.Ionides, C.Breto, A.A.King. Inference for Nonlinear dynamical systems.
    PNAS 103(49): 18438-43 (Dec 5 2006).
  • Selecting Parameters for calibration via sensitivity analysis: An inidividual-based model
    of mosquitofish population dynamics. Beaudouin etal (2008). Ecological Modeling 218: 29-48.

Mar 25 Wed

  • Open Lab -- questions and help with term project.

Mar 27 Fri --- Project #2 Due.

GIS / Social Science Models

Discussion Leaders: Jun, Carrie, Trevor

Required Readings:

Optional Readings:

  • Comparison of empirical methods for building agent-based models in land use science.
    Robison, Derek, etal. Journal of Land Use Science (2007).
    (on the ctools site for March 18, from andrea k.)
  • Landscape Models and Explanation in Landscape Ecology—A Space for Generative Landscape Science?
    Brown etal (2006), The Professional Geographer,58(4): 369-382.
    (on the ctools site for March 18, from andrea k.)
  • Modelling adaptive, spatially aware, and mobile agents: Elk Migration in Yellowstone.
    D.A.Bennett and W. Tang. IJGIS 20(9): 1039-1066 (2006).
    (Note this is the IBM described in the Brown etal paper, just above.)
  • Intelligent Social Learning. Rosaria Conte and Mario Paolucci (2001).
    JASSS vol 4(1)
  • Further Towards a taxonomy of agent-based simulation models in environmental management.
    Hare, M.P. and Deadman, P. Mathematics and Computers in Simulation 64: 25-40 (2004).
  • Path dependence and the validation of agent-based spatial models of land use.
    Brown, D.G. etal. International Journal of Geographical Information Science, 19(2): 153-174 (2005)
    Note: This addresses some of the difficulties with validation of models of CAS.

Project #2 Due

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